Comments on October Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 148 thousand for October ex-Census (128K total including temp Census hires and layoffs) was above consensus expectations of 93 thousand, and the previous two months were revised up 95 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate increased to 3.6%. Earlier: October Employment Report: 148,000 Jobs Added ex-Census, 3.6% Unemployment Rate In October,…

Comments on October Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 148 thousand for October ex-Census (128K total including temp Census hires and layoffs) was above consensus expectations of 93 thousand, and the previous two months were revised up 95 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate increased to 3.6%.
Earlier: October Employment Report: 148,000 Jobs Added ex-Census, 3.6% Unemployment Rate
In October, the year-over-year employment change was 2.093 million jobs including Census hires (note: this will be revised down in February with the benchmark revision).Seasonal Retail Hiring
Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.Click on graph for larger image.
This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then seasonal hiring has increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.
Retailers hired 137 thousand workers (NSA) net in October.   Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
This is more than last year in October.Average Hourly Earnings
Wage growth was below expectations. From the BLS:
“In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to $28.18. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.0 percent.”
This graph is based on “Average Hourly Earnings”
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